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David.Mitchell


Key Insights: Walgreens' International Growth and Script Growth Strategies

2023-07-30

The company's recent earning call meeting provided a comprehensive overview of its funding activities, integration plans, future acquisition priorities, and financial performance for the first quarter. The focus of the meeting was primarily on the company's financial performance and outlook.

During the meeting, the company expressed an optimistic market outlook, with a strong emphasis on regaining market share and increasing script growth. To achieve these goals, they are implementing various strategies such as adherence and services, marketing win-back plans, core staffing, and reopening of store hours. Although their free cash flow was negative, the company expects progress year on year and is actively working to optimize cash flow. Due to the implications of the Summit acquisition, the company did not provide full-year guidance. However, they anticipate script growth in the second half of the year through hiring, training, reopening of stores, and win-back programs. While the company mentioned its international success with holiday items in the UK, further details were not provided.

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Based on the information shared during the meeting, key drivers of the company's business include international business growth, script growth rate, reimbursement and cost of goods sold, and the healthcare segment's growth engine.

Several Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) were discussed during the meeting, including sales and leaseback, international business growth, and script growth rate. The CFO highlighted the significance of the sales and leaseback transaction, which amounted to approximately 170 before taxes. Although the after-tax number was not provided, this transaction represents a significant financial move for the company.

The management expressed confidence in the base forecast for international business growth, citing December's performance that exceeded expectations with a 15% growth. They also mentioned that 40% of the profit comes from that month, which derisks the international forecast. This KPI indicates the company's strong performance and growth potential in international markets.

Achieving a 5% script growth rate was emphasized as a crucial goal for the company. The management mentioned that 2.5 percentage points come from marketing programs on store reopening, while the other 2.5 points come from market growth, adherence programs, and other factors. This KPI reflects the company's concerted efforts to increase prescription volumes and market share.

Overall, these KPIs provide valuable insights into the company's financial transactions, international growth prospects, and initiatives to drive script growth.

The company's outlook for the quarter and year is positive. They have had a solid start to the year, with results in line with expectations. Despite a challenging environment, the company's underlying sales growth is over 3%. The core business has proven resilient, with convenience and value resonating well with customers. Additionally, the healthcare growth engine is showing progress, with major acquisitions and an expectation of positive adjusted EBITDA by fiscal '23. The company is maintaining guidance for the fiscal year while effectively controlling costs and making investments for long-term sustainable value.

In terms of strategic initiatives, the company has made significant progress. They have disposed of a partial stake in ABC, raised debt for a 3.5 billion transaction, identified cost synergies, and plan to pursue them rapidly. While smaller acquisitions to advance their organic business are being considered, the company is currently focused on integration activities and does not have immediate plans for further M&A activity.

The meeting included the participation of analysts from prominent financial institutions such as Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Evercore ISI, JPMorgan Chase and Company, Mizuho Securities, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Their presence on the call indicates the importance and relevance of the topic being discussed. The insights and analysis provided by these participants can offer valuable information for investors and stakeholders interested in the company's performance and future prospects.